Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 4.195168e-02 0.048568 0.055385 0.062899 0.070914 0.079179 0.088317
2025-10-26 3.128316e-02 0.040779 0.051119 0.063055 0.076309 0.090449 0.106556
2025-11-02 2.493285e-02 0.036120 0.048887 0.064164 0.081629 0.100703 0.122859
2025-11-09 1.982683e-02 0.031934 0.046385 0.064242 0.085163 0.108446 0.135907
2025-11-16 1.482536e-02 0.027057 0.042411 0.062030 0.085579 0.112262 0.144180
2025-11-23 1.096085e-02 0.023005 0.038952 0.060007 0.085856 0.115621 0.151665
2025-11-30 8.962876e-03 0.021193 0.038098 0.060973 0.089518 0.122759 0.163353
2025-12-07 7.472814e-03 0.019874 0.037720 0.062401 0.093632 0.130342 0.175485
2025-12-14 6.500330e-03 0.019200 0.038114 0.064739 0.098798 0.139125 0.188976
2025-12-21 5.274612e-03 0.017874 0.037456 0.065601 0.102061 0.145584 0.199703
2025-12-28 5.212843e-03 0.018613 0.039767 0.070397 0.110247 0.157950 0.217383
2026-01-04 3.792838e-03 0.016508 0.037743 0.069271 0.110889 0.161169 0.224219
2026-01-11 3.002323e-03 0.015535 0.037435 0.070578 0.114795 0.168569 0.236314
2026-01-18 2.153268e-03 0.014168 0.036417 0.070860 0.117383 0.174392 0.246585
2026-01-25 1.597352e-03 0.013295 0.036092 0.072056 0.121117 0.181597 0.258498
2026-02-01 1.025680e-03 0.012059 0.035045 0.072142 0.123343 0.186900 0.268093
2026-02-08 4.187050e-04 0.010043 0.032422 0.069790 0.122234 0.187971 0.272495
2026-02-15 9.440528e-05 0.008303 0.030042 0.067637 0.121280 0.189154 0.276966
2026-02-22 2.175355e-05 0.007742 0.029803 0.068665 0.124582 0.195665 0.287906
2026-03-01 6.011021e-07 0.007373 0.029900 0.070184 0.128539 0.202994 0.299843
2026-03-08 NaN 0.007319 0.030623 0.072669 0.133814 0.211997 0.313835
2026-03-15 NaN 0.006816 0.030359 0.073585 0.136920 0.218234 0.324427
2026-03-22 NaN 0.007533 0.032729 0.078674 0.145794 0.231832 0.344079